Atp

[jameson1227]

Hello all,

It's very telling how much interest is in tennis handicapping when it just gets lumped in with all other sports. Tennis is an interesting sport and much different than American sports in that you can't really go by stats and trends. It is much more about form, attitude, and motivation. Anyway I'd like to just say a few words about couple matches tonight for my first post.

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Nick Kyrgios ~ -400 to -450 : I'm not sure I've actually watched Nikoloz play but I will be watching in about an hour. In the past year he has gone from just outside the top 100 to firmly in the 50-60 range. He beat Dominic Thiem a top 10 player earlier this year and followed that up in the next tournament making it to the Memphis final knocking off a few good guys on the way (Thompson, Karlovic). He had some really tough months through June & July in which he went 1-8. More recently he has two losses to Jared Donaldson who was big favorite and he's not on the same level as Kyrgios. He beat Gilles Muller in Metz which was a nice win but Gilles can be finnicky sometimes, another big server who can get beat by other big servers in tight matches. Nikoloz made it to the semifinal and in looking at that match vs Paire I see Benoit fired 17 aces and wasn't broken which tells me maybe he's not the best returner. He played here in Beijing last year for the first time but didn't make the main draw through qualifying. On to the crazy man Kyrgios. This guy is probably the flashiest, highest potential player you will ever watch but also frustrating as hell because he literally doesn't try at times and has the maturity of a 12 year old. He's beaten Novak twice this year and honestly this guy has the most respect you will ever see from oddsmakers. He has lost about 7 matches in which he was this big of a favorite and sometimes even larger. Bookies know how good this guy can be but I'm telling you it's risky because who knows what human will step on that court. He's the third favorite to win this whole tournament at a stingy +600 in an absolutely loaded field. I think he will be motivated this week and get his chops wet with a standard match win.

Kyrgios 7-5 6-4
[h=1][/h]

 

[jameson1227]

Benoit Paire vs Yuichi Sugita (evens) - Sugita is the local Japanese player and he is a late bloomer. He's 29 years old and just now gaining his highest ever ranking at around 42. I've watched a couple of his matches recently and he has looked amazing - really consistent and fast around the court. This veteran has been playing in this tournament since 2005 and unfortunately he's a woeful 2-11 but like I said he's only started to come on in the last couple years. He won an ATP event in June and he's really a workmanlike guy. Playing in Challengers, crafting his game, and just learning by winning all the time. He made it to the semifinal of the last tournament he was in which was an ATP event and he's really been kicking the crap out of guys if they can't hang with his consistency. I think he will want to have a good tournament here and Benoit might be the guy he wants to see. Paire is almost as crazy as Kyrgios but not as talented. He really has a poor attitude on court if things aren't going his way which is ridiculous for a professional. He is a pretty talented guy as he's a tall guy with a big serve and moves well. With that said he loses all the time as big favorite because of his attitude. He did make the to the final of his last tournament in Metz where he lost as -190 favorite. He actually also made the final here in Tokyo in 2015 where he lost to Wawrinka. He lost first round last year so he's not defending any points. This just really seems like a golden spot for Paire to collect his paycheck and party in Tokyo while Sugita is going to fight and claw for every point. These guys are only separated by a couple spots in rank but Paire is certainly more well known. The odds are great and I wish I could watch this one too but it might be on a little too late for me here in the states. Not going to try and predict an exact score but I think Sugita could easily win in straight sets and I'm hoping he does.

 

[hilltop]

jameson1227 welcome to the board and thank you for your write-ups and dialogue. Great call on Sugita. I follow tennis religiously and am always looking for an edge, intel & info. Thanks for sharing its is appreciated. Do you follow the WTA also?

 

[jameson1227]

Thanks hilltop. Yes I follow ATP, WTA, & Challengers. Been following very closely for a little over a decade and know just about everyone on the mens and womens side in the top 500. I think Pliskova is a banker tonight vs Cornet. I have moneyline as a parlay piece but I think a straight sets bet or game handicap would be fine too. Cornet should get blown away.

 

[jameson1227]

Meant to say Cirstea